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The outcome, in Eady's opinion, is that the deleveraging process in the financial sector will continue to be acute and may even become more so.
The end result will be a less geared sector, in which existing shareholders will probably be more diluted than today, and which will be less profitable too.
Research by Deutsche Bank, for example, has highlighted how the growth in bank profits over the last decade outstripped growth in nominal GDP, which was a function of the increasing leverage applied in the sector.
Once this leverage is pared back, growth in bank profitability will be lower than in the boom years. TT is not arguing that lower leverage will mean the end of securitisation.
Our overriding sense is that the dynamics of the industry over the cycle will be less profitable. The bail out of distressed institutions and the wider underwriting of the financial system by the monetary authorities will come at a price, both in terms of profitability and oversight.
Regulation, too, is set to increase. It was driven by excessive monetary growth and speculation fuelled by leverage and at the top of the cycle the system is not self-correcting," says Eady.
Profits may be smoother as well as lower. The cycle, however, is unlikely to become so muted, that investment opportunities are impinged.